Copenhaguen
Dramatic American intervention brings climate deal closer
The United States today pledged support for a $100 billion annual climate protection fund in a move that could clinch a global deal just as the Copenhagen summit appeared to be heading for failure.
Hillary Clinton, the Secretary of State, attached strong conditions to the US contribution to the fund, including a demand that China accept independent scrutiny of its emissions reductions.
She also said that the money would only be forthcoming if a deal was signed tomorrow by 193 countries. This was a clear signal to developing countries to lower their demands for higher emissions cuts from the US and other rich nations.
Mrs Clinton said: “The US is prepared to work with other countries toward a goal of jointly mobilising $100 billion a year by 2020 to address the climate change needs of developing countries.”
Mrs Clinton made it clear that the US would not be improving on its previous commitment to cut emissions by 4 per cent on 1990 levels by 2020.
She did not say how much the US would be contributing towards the $100 billion fund, available in full by 2020, but indicated that the US would pay its fair share. She said that the money would come from a wide variety of sources, including new financing mechanisms. This was a reference to EU proposals for raising climate finance through taxes on aviation, shipping and financial transactions.
The US contribution would be earmarked partly to protect rainforests, as the White House believes that the US public is more willing to accept paying for this.
The Secretary of State has put the ball in the court of the Chinese and other major emerging economies such as India, Brazil and South Africa by insisting that any carbon limits they agree to would have to be open to international verification.
“If there is not even a commitment to some sort of transparency, then that’s kind of a deal-breaker for us,” she told a press conference. “There has to be a commitment to transparency.”
The decision to offer long-term funding is likely to bring many African and small island states on board, putting pressure on the China — the world’s biggest polluter — and India not to block an accord.
Both countries have made repeated procedural interventions, blocking progress at the negotiations, and are pushing for a political agreement with no teeth — a point the Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd made in a hard-hitting speech to his fellow leaders.
“I fear a triumph of form over substance,” he said. “I fear a triumph of inaction over action. Let us as leaders decide for the future, not simply decide to defer the future.”
Ms Clinton said that $100 billion a year was a lot of money and could have tangible effects but that the money was contingent on a proper deal.
Asked about rumours that Mr Obama would not come to Copenhagen if no deal was on the table, she said: “The President is planning to come tomorrow. Obviously, we hope that there will be something to come for.”
Ms Clinton’s intervention is the first significant movement in the endgame of a conference at which everything is still to play for — despite increasingly downbeat comments from the key players. It also puts the Americans in line with Africa’s demands on long-term financing, removing a key obstacle to a deal.
Gordon Brown used his speech this morning to urge agreement around six broad principles, including that global temperatures should rise by no more than 2 degrees from pre-industrial levels and that developed nations should make 80 per cent emissions cuts by 2050.
In a concession to China he said that the monitoring of climate change goals by the international community would not affect national sovereignty.
But he acknowledged that a more detailed agreement was now unlikely to be agreed this week.
As conference hosts, the Danes have taken on the task of hammering out a meaningful pact to reduce global carbon emissions and help the Third World cope with rising temperatures that scientists consider inevitable.
But their handling of that role — particularly their refusal to publish the latest draft of their own “Danish text”, which could still be used as the template for an agreement — has angered the emerging nations.
Top negotiators from China, India, Brazil and South Africa worked late into the night last night and agreed to negotiate only on the basis of a much less ambitious draft than has emerged from the painfully slow formal negotiating process. That draft includes dozens of square brackets around emissions targets and financing mechanisms and includes no firm commitments.
Briefing parliament before leaving for the Danish capital, the German Chancellor Angela Merkel said: “The news reaching us is not good. At the moment, the negotiations do not look promising but I, of course, hope that the presence of more than 100 heads of state and government can give the necessary impetus to the event.”
Ed Miliband, the Climate Change Secretary, said that he was extremely downbeat about the prospects for a deal that could be turned into a legal agreement within months.
He suggested that international environment ministers, who are entering their eleventh day at the summit, had become too entrenched in their positions to be able to see their way to an agreement.
“Basically, we’ve spent today arguing about the shape of the table, the nature of the negotiations," Mr Miliband said last night.
“Now, given the very short time there is to go, I agree with Connie Hedegaard [the Danish Environment Minister] that that is not a good way to go. It’s not what we needed to do today." The UK had been expecting the Danes to publish another draft text this morning, incorporating the plan by Prime Minister Meles Zenawi of Ethiopia for $100 billion (£61 billion) in aid for the developing world. This has not emerged, amid speculation that such a detailed proposal is no longer likely.
UK officials suggested that the negotiations should continue as soon as the summit finishes, aiming to secure an agreement at the summit in Mexico next summer.
A spokesperson said: "It’s an important development and very welcome to have the United States on the same page as the UK and the EU in terms of long term climate finance."
(Published by Times Online - December 17, 2009)